What We Know About Trump’s Legal Troubles

What do we know?

Charges could also come down at any time in another local investigation involving Trump — this one in Georgia. Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, has been investigating Trump’s efforts to influence the outcome of the 2020 election in Georgia since early 2021, soon after a recording of Trump pressuring Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” extra votes became public. The investigation quickly expanded beyond the phone call to a broader probe into whether Trump allies tried to convene an alternate slate of electors in an effort to overturn the result of the election.

What don’t we know?

Will Trump be charged? That’s the big unanswered question, and we don’t have any more clues than we did in February when Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ordered the partial release of a special grand jury report from the case. The report revealed that the grand jury had recommended some indictments — but not who the subjects of the indictments were. When she was asked whether Trump was among them, the jury foreperson said, “You’re not going to be shocked. It’s not rocket science.” (The problem, of course, is that jaded political observers can’t be shocked by anything anymore.) Willis and her team are now reportedly considering racketeering and conspiracy charges — but whether they’ll materialize remains to be seen.

What does it mean for Trump?

In the last few days, Trump and his legal team have pushed back aggressively against the case. On Monday, Trump’s lawyers filed a motion to quash the final grand jury report and disqualify Willis’s team from the case. That stance could be reflective of a broader effort to paint Trump as the victim of partisan prosecutors bent on putting an innocent man behind bars, which he has been pushing in fundraising emails. But it could also be a tacit acknowledgment of the danger that the Georgia investigation poses for Trump and his allies. Willis is famous in legal circles for her use of racketeering laws, and some experts have argued that Trump’s risk of criminal prosecution in Fulton County is real. But it’s possible, of course, that Trump himself will escape charges since there are plenty of other people — including Trump allies like Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman — who could be indicted instead.

The 2020 election and Jan. 6 insurrection

What do we know?

Last December, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol issued its final report, which included four criminal referrals for Trump. Because Congress can’t issue charges itself, the referrals are really a recommendation for the Department of Justice — which means federal prosecutors aren’t obligated to bring a case against Trump for what the committee called a “multipart scheme” to overturn the 2020 election. The investigation is now in the hands of Jack Smith, the special counsel who also took over a probe of Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents in November after Trump announced he would run for reelection.

What don’t we know?

We know very little about what’s happening inside Smith’s investigation, or what he’s likely to do with the information gathered by the Jan. 6 committee. The Justice Department was already pursuing its own investigation of Trump’s interference with the 2020 election before Smith came on board, or the congressional referrals came through, and it appears that Smith is moving quickly. In early February, he issued a subpoena for former Vice President Mike Pence, which Pence is not challenging in its entirety. Later that month, Smith issued subpoenas for testimony from Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. There’s been speculation that investigators are moving quickly with the hope of wrapping up by the summer before the 2024 presidential campaign kicks into high gear, but that’s not a sure thing. And of course, Smith might not be the ultimate decider about who’s charged, or for what — he can still be overruled by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

What does it mean for Trump?

Trump, predictably, has attacked Smith multiple times since the special counsel was appointed, calling him a “thug” and a “terrorist” on his social media site, Truth Social. But a lot will hinge on what — if anything — he ends up being charged with. The charges recommended by the House committee, which include conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to make a false statement, insurrection and obstruction of an official proceeding, are serious. Being convicted of insurrection, in particular, could preclude Trump from ever holding public office again. But many of the charges (including insurrection) could be hard to prove in court, and the committee itself doesn’t seem to have made a huge impact on public opinion. Relatively few people watched the committee’s hearings, and overall opinion about the attack on the Capitol and Trump’s role hasn’t shifted much since the committee began its work. On the other hand, though, Trump could be politically damaged if charges are filed, since voters report that the Jan. 6 attack remains on their minds as a voting issue for 2024. 

The Mar-a-Lago documents

What do we know?

Last summer, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago and recovered a number of classified documents, and prosecutors subsequently argued in a court filing that Trump’s legal team tried to conceal documents from investigators in the lead-up to the raid. This part of the investigation is clearly going strong — earlier this month, Smith’s team subpoenaed dozens of Mar-a-Lago staff to testify in front of the grand jury that’s looking into the way Trump handled classified documents after he left the presidency, and Smith is reportedly trying to interview one of Trump’s attorneys about potential obstruction, in spite of claims of attorney-client privilege.

What don’t we know?

Like Smith’s other investigation, it’s clear that this probe is still active — which means that we don’t know when (or if) charges will emerge, or what they’ll be if they happen. One of the potential charges that Trump could face is concealment or destruction of official documents, which includes a ban on holding federal office (and up to three years in prison per offense). However, the federal office ban could be unconstitutional, so it’s unclear what that would mean for Trump even if he was charged and convicted.

What does it mean for Trump?

After last summer’s FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, Republicans rushed to Trump’s defense — much as they’re doing now as the threat of an indictment in the Stormy Daniels case looms. And as my colleague Nathaniel Rakich noted earlier this week, Trump’s favorability ratings barely moved despite wall-to-wall coverage of the raid. Plus, the fact that Biden is also the subject of a special counsel investigation into whether he mishandled classified documents could give Trump some leeway to argue that his actions weren’t out of the ordinary — although the cases are not really comparable on a number of levels. But as with the other federal investigation, the potential impact largely depends on what prosecutors do and if Trump ends up facing criminal charges.